The latest figures on poverty and unemployment, announced by the Minister of Social Affairs to a higher court for achieving the objectives of the revolution, political reform and democratic transition, puzzling.
Such statistics announced that 24.7% of the population live below the poverty line by international standards which set the poverty income not exceeding two (02) dollars per day per person, 700,000 unemployed, 170,000 graduates the superior, or nearly 20% of the workforce. The unemployment figures vary ente 9% and 32%, depending on the region, announced it does. The highest rates are recorded at Kasserine, Jendouba, Sidi Bouzid, Le Kef, Siliana, Kebili and Gafsa.
The unemployment rate has risen, partly because of the tourism crisis. This sector provides about 7% of GDP, but is struggling since the revolution of January 14. It employs a more direct way than 200,000 people and can not catch his breath.
And if the figures on unemployment are not really surprising, they vary according to the definition given to the unemployed. It is flexible and variable, thus giving different results. Have we not reduced our unemployment rate of 1.4% in 2009, just by imposing an active search for employment?
For cons, the new poverty ratios are surprised observers and experts, even if one considers that Mr. Ennaceur talking about poverty in the broadest sense and not, of extreme poverty for people with only $ 0.8 of income per person per day and whose latest statistics estimate that 3.8% of the population. The latest available estimate, in fact, less than 15% the rate of the population group whose average income is less than two (02) dollars per person per day. So there's a snag in the declarations of Mohamed Ennaceur!
Returning to the site of the National Institute of Statistics, he continues to display the rate of 3.8% by talking about poverty. 'The study of poverty is discussed here based on the estimated number of people living below the poverty line, according to survey results on budget and household consumption made by the National Institute of Statistics', we read on the site.
Following this announcement, which indicates a statistical reference upheaval, several actions are needed. First, the services of the Ministry of Social Affairs are expected to show the public the studies that led to these figures, so that the experts are convinced of their reliability. Many observers believe at first that this rate may be exaggerated. It should therefore explain to the public how these results were obtained.
Then, the Directorate General of National Statistical Institute (NSI) is called to justify itself. It is surprising, moreover, it is still in place after the revolution of 14 January, when everyone is convinced of his involvement in the makeup of the figures under the old regime. All the light should be shed on the manipulations made at the INS, which have not been without impact on the economy and society.
Finally, many experts continue to attract the attention of governments on the fact that the INS should acquire its independence from government structures, as elsewhere in the developed world. It should set itself up as an independent public institution, comprised of experts and work in state service. 'The INS is not in the service of a policy but, rather, to develop indicators based on field surveys. "
This query about the independence of the NSI has also been made repeatedly by the president of the Tunisian Association of Economists (ASECTU), Mohamed Haddar, who considers that 'statistics should be made available economic and financial experts to design development programs. " 'Most statistics are reliable, patterns of programs designed to meet needs,' says he.
Now, in reaction to the announcement of the Minister of Social Affairs, the interim government is called upon to respond. 'All the ratios from the INS becomes, so, subject to suspicion, including the figures of growth', say many economists. 'It is therefore imperative that an inquiry into place to monitor this issue and that treatment is done at the INS to be truly serving the nation', they propose.
With these debates, the economic transition began to take center stage. 'That's normal! "Insists Mohamed Haddar. 'The political transition process is considered effective if it allows the establishment of an efficient economy by mobilizing innovation. The change of political regime is successful in providing answers to the challenges of growth and cutting with the economy of corruption ', he adds.
'Tunisia is moving from a dictatorial regime and an economy of corruption in a democracy coupled with an economy of creation and innovation in order to reestablish its relations with the rest of the world. However, the independence of statistics is one of the guarantees of transparency, 'he concludes.
A great debate looks around this important issue. It is a strong indication that no more taboos. The INS was inaccessible to researchers. It remains for the moment, but not for long, it seems.
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